The Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Increases

The Conference Board reports today that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.1% in December, following a 0.9% increase in November and a 1.0% increase in October.

Says Ken Goldstein, Labor Economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators may be signaling a spurt of growth ahead (perhaps in the spring) which could be followed by a slower pace of activity later in 2006. Improvement in the leading series, steady modest gains in the coincident series, a recent pick-up in the lagging series, and a flat to declining trend in the ratio of coincident to lagging series is not the mix of indicators one would expect if 2006 is to be a year of steadily building momentum. Rather, it is suggestive of a quite choppy pattern of growth.”

The Conference Board reports that the Coincident Index, a major barometer of current economic activity, increased 0.2% in December, following a 0.4% increase in November, and a 0.2% increase in October. The lagging index increased 0.1% in December, after increasing 0.5% in November, and increasing 0.7% in October.

This month’s release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite indexes which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the January release of each year when an annual benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed.

For more information, visit http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/.

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in December.

• The leading index increased slightly in December, following large gains in October and November. The six month growth rate of the leading index picked up to a 2.1 percent annual rate in December from a low of 0.6 percent in May. In addition, the strength among the leading indicators has been widespread since August. In 2005, the average six-month growth rate of the leading index was about a 1.9 percent annual rate, down from an average of about 6.2 percent in 2004.

• The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in December. It has been on a relatively steady upward trend since April 2003, but its growth rate has moderated since June 2005. The six-month growth rate of the coincident index has been fluctuating around a 1.5 percent annual rate in the last four months. The coincident index grew at almost a 2.0 percent annual rate in 2005, down from about 3.0 percent in 2004.

• The leading index grew strongly from mid-2003 to mid-2004, but it has been fluctuating around a more moderate upward trend since mid-2004. The strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators were balanced through mid-2005, and the strength has become somewhat more widespread in recent months. The current behavior of the leading index suggests the economy should continue expanding moderately in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors — beginning with the largest positive contributor — were index of consumer expectations, real money supply*, stock prices, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), interest rate spread, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*. The negative contributors were vendor performance, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods*, building permits, and average weekly manufacturing hours.

The leading index now stands at 138.5 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in November and increased 1.0 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the leading index increased 1.0 percent, with seven out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals seventy percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in December. The positive contributors to the index — beginning with the largest positive contributor — were industrial production, employees on nonagricultural payrolls, and manufacturing and trade sales*. Personal income less transfer payments* held steady in December.

The coincident index now stands at 121.1 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in November and increased 0.2 percent in October. During the six-month period through December, the coincident index increased 0.7 percent.

The next release is scheduled for February 21, Tuesday at 10 A.M. ET. LAGGING INDICATORS. The lagging index stands at 122.3 (1996=100) in December, with five of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index — beginning with the largest positive contributor — were average duration of unemployment (inverted), average prime rate charged by banks, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*, ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*, and change in labor cost per unit of output*. The negative contributors — beginning with the largest negative contributor — were commercial and industrial loans outstanding* and change in CPI for services. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in November and increased 0.7 percent in October.