MasterCard Predicts Procrastination and Prudence During 2006 Holiday Shopping Season

The thought of heading to the mall right after Thanksgiving is likely to conjure up images of long lines and packed parking lots. Later in the weekend, however, may actually be one of the least hectic times to shop before the holidays, according to a report issued today by MasterCard Worldwide.

The MasterCard Holiday Shopping Insights report found that nearly three out of four consumers (74 percent) think Thanksgiving weekend is the busiest time for holiday shopping. However, information from billions of payment card transactions over the past several years indicates that it is unlikely to be the case. Last year, for example, "Black Friday" did not even rank in the top five busiest holiday shopping days, while the Sunday following Thanksgiving has been the least busy day of the holiday shopping season for the past two years.

The report also found that, contrary to popular belief, there will not be a huge surge in online shopping on "Cyber Monday," the Monday after Thanksgiving. But as it did last year, online shopping might peak exactly one week later. Only 10 percent of those surveyed said they will conduct their shopping on Cyber Monday. In 2005, Cyber Monday ranked as the ninth most active online shopping day in terms of transactions processed. The next Monday — Dec. 5, 2005 — was the most active online shopping day of the season.

"MasterCard is uniquely positioned at the heart of commerce, and as such we have a tremendous amount of insight into the spending patterns of consumers," said Larry Flanagan, chief marketing officer for MasterCard Worldwide. "There are 31 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and we expect to see consumers use every bit of that time. According to our data from the last few years, we anticipate the day before Christmas Eve, which falls on a Saturday this year, will be the busiest."

The MasterCard report offers several insights into how consumers will shop this holiday season, predicting heavy levels of e-commerce, strong popularity of prepaid gift cards, the continued displacement of cash and check, and a growing reliance on debit as a preferred means of payment. Among the survey’s key findings were: